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Episode 573: Free Agents, Front-Office Surveys, and Other Incisive Emails
Date November 12, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam discuss Jerry Crasnick's executive survey, then answer listener emails about Max Scherzer, international spending, and more. Topics * Pivot point for defining elite players * Max Scherzer's velocity loss * Pitcher velocity aging curves * Home field advantage * International spending rules * Separate offensive and defensive players * Manager of the Year voting * State income tax and free agency Intro The Hollies, "Please Sign Your Letters" Banter * Discussion about Jerry Crasnick's survey of 28 team executives. * What question would you ask team executives? * Episode 570 follow-up: Michael Cuddyer signed a 2-year $21 million deal with the Mets. Email Questions * Clark: "I was amused by the bomb-ass versus not bomb-ass discussion in Sam's recent piece on Nelson Cruz. If the BA vs. NBA OPS+ line is .128 for DHs could you identify the pivot point for other positions? Do the Royals have a single bomb-ass hitter?" * Joe: "Keith Law did a piece on the top 50 free agents highlighting Mr. Scherzer (ol' blue eye, see what I did there) as the top free agent. Law mentioned a drop in velocity of about 1/2 a MPH on Scherzer's fastball in 2014. Based on what we've seen from other starters and their effectiveness what can we project Scherzer's downward spiral of doom to be? How much juice will he lose if he continues on the historical trend of pitchers losing MPH? How do you think he will fare compared to other starters who lost their mojo? Scherzer has significant movement on his fastball so that may help him cope with the drop off better than some. His slider is his best secondary pitch with late movement, for now." * Eric (New Zealand): [[Roberto Baldoquin]] "The Angels, pending the usual visa issues, splashed out $8 million plus on a guy that does not seem to be high on teams' lists of international prospects and have totally blown out their international slot money. Of course some of it is what do they think they know that the others don't. I mean, this guy will get #1 pick bonus money is he really that good? Any idea? The questions I have for you are this: Given the structure of how the international pool/slots are constructed and given the Angels' payroll constraints, would it be a workable strategy to go all in and spend another $20-30 million and go after a Yoan Moncada who probably is worth #1 money as a way to restock the prospect cupboard especially as this spending does not count against the main payroll luxury tax. Perhaps more big picture is, let's say big market teams just decide to ignore the rules and spend up large to get who they want, as some have done and just absorb the fine/tax. Would you think MLB would try to come up with something to stop this? I don't know, maybe like a player must be drafted via the MLB draft unless they have X years of pro ball service in a non-USA league or at least Y years old. Thoughts?" * Eric: "A reader of Drew Magary's funbag had a question I really enjoyed. What would be the difference if baseball had offenses and defenses? A completely different group of 9 guys in the field versus the 9 that bat?" * Maxine (Quebec, Canada): "Robinson Cano signed with Seattle last year for $240 million. Do you think the Yankees had to offer him something like $260 million to match the offer on an after-tax basis? There's no state income tax in Washington but there's a 9% tax in New York." Play Index * Sam looks into 16 aspects of baseball to see if they showed home field advantage. * The home team turns more double plays and is more likely to be hit by a pitch than the road team. Each is a 51.5/48.5% distribution. * Home teams hit triples at a 54-46% advantage against road teams. * Other areas Sam looks into are balks, wild pitches, stolen base success rates, home runs, and pickoffs. Notes * Ben and Sam are baffled why for almost every question one executive doesn't respond or says 'I don't know'. * Sam's analysis of previous GM predictions shows that they are no much better than random chance. * Ben would be curious to ask team executives about who they think is the most overrated top prospect. * Starting at age 29 pitchers lose about 1 MPH per year of pitch velocity. * Ben, on pitcher velocity, "I would guess that someone who's already started losing velocity would be a little bit more likely to lose more of it, not more of it because eventually everyone loses the same amount because eventually they die." * In Episode 484 there was an extensive discussion with Kiley McDaniel about international spending rules and processes. * In Episode 244 Ben and Sam addressed a listener email about separate offensive and defensive rosters for the All-Star game. * Matt Williams got 18/30 first place votes for Manager of the Year. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 573: Free Agents, Front-Office Surveys, and Other Incisive Emails * Execs comment on hot offseason Q's by Jerry Crasnick * Grading the 'MLB Executive' Predictions, 2012 and 2013 by Sam Miller * Theo Epstein concentrating on upgrading rotation over bullpen by Paul Sullivan * Nelson Cruz is Same, Different by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes